The latter half of the nineteenth century witnessed the beginning of an idea — Ottomanism. On the time, the Ottoman Empire, with its base of energy in Turkey, dominated an unlimited area stretching from Southeast Europe to North Africa, Arabia and the Caucasus. Ottomanist intellectuals envisioned a unified Ottoman nation transcending the various ethnicities, religions and languages throughout the empire’s huge borders. The ideology of Ottomanism aimed to foster a way of shared identification and belonging that outdated these conventional divisions.
Nonetheless, Ottomanism’s journey has gone by detours and complexities. Beneath Sultan Abdulhamid II, the ideology took on a extra pronounced Islamic character. The principle level was the sultan’s function as Caliph of the Islamic world. This new strategy aimed to unite the empire’s Muslim inhabitants beneath a shared religion.
Ottomanism couldn’t save the empire, which succumbed to inner dissent and exterior pressures. With the abolition of the Sultanate on November 1, 1922, and the institution of the Republic of Turkey in 1923, the Ottoman state grew to become a historic relic. The once-hopeful imaginative and prescient of unity light alongside the civilization it sought to protect.
Rising within the late twentieth and early twenty first centuries, Neo-Ottomanism revived concepts from the unique empire throughout the context of the Republic of Turkey. Present proponents of Neo-Ottomanism advocate for a extra energetic Turkish international coverage in areas that after belonged to the Ottoman Empire. They emphasize Turkey’s potential function as a frontrunner and mediator within the Center East and surrounding areas.
Nonetheless, Neo-Ottomanism has resulted in a downgrade of Turkey’s place, each politically and economically. Its emphasis on previous glories and a extra interventionist international coverage has strained relations with key international locations and diverted assets from addressing essential inner challenges.
The rise of Neo-Ottomanism
The time period “Neo-Ottomanism” first emerged within the Nineteen Seventies in Greece as a response to issues about Turkey’s interventions in Cyprus. Nonetheless, till the late Nineteen Eighties, Turkey’s international coverage remained largely targeted on the West. This was evident in its shut relationship with america and its pursuit of membership within the European Financial Neighborhood (EEC), the precursor to the European Union.
The navy coup of 1980 marked a turning level that led to vital modifications in Turkey’s political panorama. Turgut Özal, who grew to become prime minister in 1983, performed a pivotal function on this transformation. He carried out a neo-liberal financial mannequin that aimed to combine Turkey extra deeply with the worldwide market. He additionally acknowledged the rising financial significance of areas past Europe and the US.
Özal shifted the main target in the direction of fostering good relations and financial ties with international locations like Iraq, Iran and Libya. Whereas sustaining connections with Europe and the US remained an vital facet of his international coverage, Özal emphasised Turkey’s historic and cultural connections with the Turkic world and the broader Islamic world. This newfound emphasis on these historic ties marked the incorporation of components of Neo-Ottomanism into Turkish international coverage. Özal strategically used ideas like Islam, Turkism and Ottoman historical past to construct bridges with international locations within the Center East, Balkans and Central Asia.
Özal’s dying in 1993 marked the top of the primary period of Neo-Ottomanism. The next years had been characterised by inner political instability and financial issues, resulting in a brief halt within the improvement of this international coverage doctrine.
A shift in the direction of assertive regionalism
The 2002 elections marked a turning level in Turkish international coverage with the rise of the Justice and Growth Occasion (AKP) led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The AKP, rooted in a center-right Islamist ideology, promised a recent strategy to international coverage that might depart from the earlier period of coalition governments’ give attention to Western alignment. This new imaginative and prescient drew closely from the doctrine of “Strategic Depth” developed by political scientist Ahmet Davutoğlu. Strategic Depth emphasised Turkey’s distinctive geopolitical place on the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Center East. It argued that Turkey might leverage its historic and cultural legacy, notably its Ottoman previous, to change into a pivotal participant in a multipolar world order.
Initially, the AKP adopted a “zero issues with neighbors” coverage, prioritizing gentle energy instruments. Turkey considerably elevated its international assist contributions and have become a significant donor within the area. Cultural packages tried to foster nearer ties with neighboring international locations by selling Turkish language, music and delicacies. This strategy resonated with many regional actors, notably these cautious of Western dominance.
Concurrently, the AKP pursued EU membership with renewed vigor. They launched home reforms to align with European requirements, and Turkey actively participated in regional initiatives to showcase its dedication to stability and cooperation. A key instance was the numerous enchancment in relations with Syria, a former adversary. Diplomatic ties, elevated financial cooperation and power partnerships between the 2 international locations flourished.
Nonetheless, the EU accession course of proved to be a gradual and irritating expertise. The EU’s inner resistance to Turkish membership fueled a rising sense of disillusionment in Ankara. Turks perceived the entire course of as foot-dragging.
Ahmet Davutoğlu amplified this sentiment when he grew to become International Minister in 2009. A powerful proponent of Neo-Ottomanism, Davutoğlu envisioned a extra assertive function for Turkey on the world stage. He argued that his nation’s future lay not solely in aligning with the West, however in re-establishing its affect as a regional chief.
A number of occasions served as catalysts for this shift. In 2009, Erdoğan delivered a scathing critique of Israel’s actions in Gaza in his One Minute speech on the World Financial Discussion board. Erdoğan highlighted his rising sense of divergence from conventional Western international coverage positions. The next 12 months, the lethal Mavi Marmara flotilla assault, the place Israeli forces raided a Turkish humanitarian assist convoy headed for Gaza, additional strained relations with the West. These incidents resonated deeply with Turkish public opinion, strengthening the attraction of Neo-Ottoman beliefs that emphasised a extra impartial and assertive international coverage.
The Arab Spring uprisings of 2010 introduced a golden alternative for Turkey to advance its Neo-Ottoman ambitions. Embracing a pro-Arab stance, Turkey actively supported rebellions towards established governments in Egypt and Libya. Ankara hoped to domesticate shut ties with these new governments, fostering financial partnerships and establishing itself as a champion of democratic reform within the area. This strategy aligned with Neo-Ottomanism emphasis on fostering regional management and projecting Turkish affect past its borders.
Nonetheless, the Arab Spring’s aftermath proved to be much more complicated than anticipated. The rise of Islamist actions to energy in Egypt and Libya initially bolstered Turkey’s international coverage ambitions. Nonetheless, the next descent into instability and violence in these international locations uncovered the restrictions of the Neo-Ottoman strategy. Turkey’s skill to affect occasions on the bottom proved to be restricted, and its regional standing grew to become entangled with the ideological struggles inside Arab societies.
The twenty first century descent into instability
Turkey overtly supported the Muslim Brotherhood authorities in Egypt. When a navy coup overthrew it in 2013, Turkey’s regional ties with Egypt grew to become strained. Turkey’s condemnation of the coup and its staunch backing of the Brotherhood led to a diplomatic rift with Egypt and its allies within the Gulf, leaving Turkey more and more remoted within the Center East. This isolation had vital financial penalties. Commerce and funding between Turkey and the Arab states declined sharply.
Internally, Neo-Ottomanism’s emphasis on the ummah (Muslim neighborhood) fostered a way of pan-Islamism that challenged the core tenets of the Turkish Republic’s secular identification. The idea of ummah fueled the rise of Islamist tendencies inside Turkish society, notably amongst conservative segments of the inhabitants. Instructional reforms launched beneath the AKP positioned a better emphasis on Islamic historical past and tradition, eroding secular values within the public sphere. These social tensions manifested in elevated polarization and a decline in spiritual tolerance in the direction of minority teams.
The 12 months 2013 marked a turning level for Turkey on a number of fronts. The Gezi Park protests erupted in response to a authorities improvement mission that threatened a beloved public house in Istanbul. The protests morphed right into a broader motion towards the AKP authorities’s perceived authoritarian tendencies. The federal government propagated additional emphasis on Ottoman historical past and identification. Grandiose infrastructure initiatives just like the duplicate Ottoman barracks on the banks of the Bosphorus intentionally tried to romanticize the Ottoman previous and distract from present-day challenges.
The Syrian Civil Struggle, which started in the identical 12 months, added one other layer of complexity to Turkey’s international coverage. Whereas Turkey initially supported the rebels preventing towards Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the emergence of extremist teams like ISIS and the Kurdish YPG (Folks’s Safety Models), backed by the US, posed a major safety risk on its borders. ISIS carried out a sequence of lethal terrorist assaults inside Turkey, focusing on vacationer locations and civilian populations. The YPG (affiliated with the Kurdistan Staff’ Occasion, a Kurdish separatist group designated internationally as a terrorist group) clashed with Turkish safety forces alongside the border and additional destabilized the area.
Moreover, Russian and Iranian help for the Syrian authorities pressured Turkey right into a precarious geopolitical balancing act. Turkey’s makes an attempt to comprise the Syrian battle inside its borders and forestall a mass refugee inflow strained its financial assets and humanitarian capability. Ummah-oriented propaganda geared toward Muslim international locations inspired uncontrolled migration in the direction of Turkey. Thousands and thousands of refugees fleeing the Syrian Civil Struggle poured into Turkey, straining its social providers, financial system and infrastructure. The inflow of refugees additionally contributed to rising social tensions and xenophobia inside Turkish society.
Turkey’s political panorama was notably tumultuous between 2015 and 2016. Inner energy struggles throughout the AKP and a surge in terrorist assaults by ISIS and Kurdish separatists uncovered the potential risks of an expansive international coverage. The controversial downing of a Russian jet by the Turkish navy, which resulted within the crew’s deaths, strained Russia–Turkish relations additional. This put heavy strain on bilateral commerce and tourism.
Turkey critically wanted to judge Neo-Ottomanism prices and advantages. The pursuit of an bold international coverage had diverted assets away from addressing urgent home points like poverty, unemployment and social inequality.
In 2016, after a failed navy coup try towards Erdoğan, Turkey declared a state of emergency and subsequent purge towards the alleged plotters. Erdoğan started the transition to a presidential system which allotted him vital energy. Apparently, Neo-Ottomanism performed a task in legitimizing his new system. Supporters of the president appealed to Islamic pleasure sentiments inside a section of the inhabitants by portraying him as a robust chief akin to an Ottoman sultan.
Considerations have arisen amongst residents concerning the Turkish authorities’s dedication to democratic ideas. In response, the federal government cracked down on fashionable dissent. It arrested 1000’s of protesters, purged its civil service and navy, and tightened its management on the media and the courts.These actions attracted criticism for stifling free speech and weakening the system of checks and balances that underpins a well-functioning democracy.
Furthermore, the federal government’s pursuit of a extra conservative and spiritual agenda deviates from the secular foundations of the Turkish Republic as established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. This and its makes an attempt to enhance presidential energy by constitutional amendments have misplaced the brand new authorities the belief of a giant portion of Turkish society. Secularists apprehend a reversal of Atatürk’s reforms, liberals specific anxieties about curtailed freedoms, and plenty of nationalists harbor reservations regarding the international coverage ramifications of Neo-Ottomanism.
Neo Ottomanism is a problem to NATO’s cohesion
Turkey’s rising emphasis on Neo-Ottomanism presents a possible problem to its crucial function inside NATO. Established within the aftermath of World Struggle II to discourage Soviet aggression, NATO capabilities on the precept of collective protection by requiring member states to come back to one another’s assist within the occasion of an assault. Neo-Ottomanism’s prioritization of regional points works towards the precept of collective protection, doubtlessly weakening the alliance’s skill to reply successfully to exterior threats.
Thus, Turkey’s involvement within the Syrian civil conflict and its help for the Libyan authorities have strained relations with allies just like the US, whose pursuits in these conflicts diverge considerably from Turkey’s.
Moreover, Neo-Ottomanism focuses on reviving Islamic affect and doubtlessly Islamic state buildings that could possibly be essentially at odds with NATO’s dedication to secular and democratic values. Ambitions related to Neo-Ottomanism, similar to aiming to reclaim former Ottoman lands, might result in disputes and border conflicts with neighbors, a few of whom are additionally NATO members or companions. This raises issues about inner strains throughout the alliance and the erosion of a unified entrance.
Navy interoperability — the power of allied forces to work collectively seamlessly — is important for NATO’s effectiveness. Nonetheless, Turkey’s acquisition of navy tools incompatible with NATO methods, such because the S-400 missile system from Russia, disrupts this seamlessness. The S-400 system’s incompatibility with NATO air protection structure might endanger the power to differentiate between pleasant and hostile plane. This incompatibility not solely hinders joint navy workout routines and operations but additionally casts doubt on Turkey’s dedication to the alliance’s collective protection technique. America’ suspension of Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program because of the S-400 deal additional exemplifies this pressure.
Neo-Ottomanism attraction to Turkish nationalists throughout the political spectrum might create divisions and factions throughout the Turkish navy, doubtlessly fracturing inner cohesion and undermining Turkey’s readiness to cooperate successfully with NATO allies.
Neo-Ottoman rhetoric, typically crucial of Western powers and their actions within the area, creates stress with some NATO members, notably these with whom Turkey has historic or ongoing political disagreements. Tensions with Greece, a fellow NATO member, over management of the Jap Mediterranean might escalate resulting from Neo-Ottoman pronouncements. These tensions hinder cooperation and belief throughout the alliance.
Moreover, the emphasis on anti-Western orientation and aspirations to free Turkey from dependence on america might create a notion of Turkey as a rival or competitor moderately than a associate amongst some NATO members. This erosion of belief and the notion of divergent targets considerably complicate efforts to keep up regional stability.
The present state of Turkey’s EU membership
EU membership is contingent upon fulfilling a set of core ideas enshrined within the Copenhagen standards. These embrace strong democratic establishments, an impartial judiciary and an unwavering respect for human rights. Moreover, the EU emphasizes peaceable resolutions to worldwide conflicts and shut cooperation with member states, ideas outlined within the Frequent International and Safety Coverage (CFSP).
Herein lies the crux of the stress between Turkey’s aspirations beneath Neo-Ottomanism and EU membership. Turkey’s assertive actions and territorial disputes within the Jap Mediterranean, notably with Greece and Cyprus, elevate issues amongst EU members about its dedication to peaceable battle decision and regional cooperation. Moreover, Turkey’s involvement within the Libyan Civil Struggle has additional strained relations with EU international locations. These escalating tensions threaten the soundness and safety of the Jap Mediterranean area.
Inner developments inside Turkey additional complicate the image. Rising issues about weakening democratic establishments, notably the independence of the judiciary and freedom of the press, solid doubt on Turkey’s adherence to the Copenhagen standards. Criticism from the EU and worldwide organizations concerning crackdowns on dissent, erosion of the rule of regulation, and human rights violations have intensified scrutiny. Indicators rank Turkey low by way of judicial independence and press freedom.
Moreover, Turkey’s financial and social insurance policies more and more diverge from EU norms. Protectionist commerce insurance policies conflict with the EU’s give attention to free commerce whereas a perceived shift in the direction of a extra conservative social agenda creates friction with the EU’s emphasis on social liberalism. Turkey’s current financial insurance policies, characterised by elevated state intervention, nationalist rhetoric and rising public spending, additional distance it from the EU’s financial mannequin. Accusations of a rising conservatism in Turkish society elevate questions on Turkey’s compatibility with the EU’s social values. Environmental and social welfare issues can also diverge from the EU’s established strategy, creating extra obstacles to full integration.
The financial fallout of Neo-Ottomanism
The preliminary interval of strong financial progress beneath the AKP social gathering in Turkey (2002–2011) witnessed a exceptional 5.6% annual common GDP progress. Nonetheless, this progress has subsequently been overshadowed by a sequence of financial woes. The execution of Neo-Ottomanism has contributed to a interval of financial downturn.
A cornerstone of a wholesome financial system is belief in its central establishments. Nonetheless, the politicization of key financial establishments beneath Neo-Ottomanism, such because the central financial institution, severely broken home and worldwide confidence. Traders and residents alike questioned the independence and competence of those establishments in managing financial coverage, notably concerning rates of interest and inflation management. Belief within the Turkish lira’s stability has eroded, discouraging international funding and hindering long-term financial planning. As an illustration, the abrupt 2021 dismissal of Naci Agbal, the Central Financial institution governor by Erdogan, who advocates for low rates of interest regardless of excessive inflation, sparked a pointy foreign money decline and raised issues about central financial institution autonomy.
Neo-Ottomanism strained ties with the European Union, a significant buying and selling bloc, and america, a major supply of international direct funding. Decreased commerce volumes ensued. Moreover, tensions with regional neighbors like Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have disrupted tourism income and potential regional financial cooperation. Turkey’s involvement within the 2020 conflicts in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, alongside its exploration for pure gasoline within the Jap Mediterranean, provoked diplomatic disputes with a number of European and Center Jap international locations. These disputes negatively impacted Turkey’s commerce and tourism sectors, which contribute roughly 25% of its GDP.
The Turkish financial system has change into closely reliant on international capital to finance progress, exposing it to exterior shocks. The lira’s worth fluctuates considerably in world foreign money markets can result in vital, disrupting commerce. Import prices have elevated and inflation is a rising predicament. Moreover, a excessive dependence on power imports makes Turkey inclined to world power value fluctuations. Moreover, a scarcity of ample home financial savings and international change reserves weakens Turkey’s skill to climate these exterior financial storms. The 2018 diplomatic row with the US over the detention of an American pastor serves as a working example. It triggered a foreign money disaster that noticed the lira lose 40% of its worth towards the US greenback. This disaster additionally uncovered Turkey’s massive present account deficit, which reached 6.5% of GDP in 2017.
Turkey’s give attention to international coverage beneath Neo-Ottomanism has diverted consideration away from essential home financial reforms. An absence of funding in infrastructure, schooling and technological innovation nonetheless hinders long-term financial progress and competitiveness. The financial system stays reliant on low-value-added sectors similar to building, agriculture and tourism. This lack of diversification makes the Turkish financial system much less resilient and hinders its skill to compete within the world market. In 2019, the International Competitiveness Index ranked Turkey poorly on indicators similar to innovation functionality, high quality of schooling and macroeconomic stability, inserting it 59th out of 141 international locations.
Regardless of the financial downturn, Turkey achieved a notable restoration in 2021, with an 11% progress fee to change into the fastest-growing G20 financial system. This was pushed by the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and expansionary fiscal and financial insurance policies. Nonetheless, Turkey’s 2021 progress got here with challenges like excessive inflation (reaching 21.3% in November 2021) and a widening present account deficit (reaching 7.1% of GDP within the third quarter of 2021). Furthermore, devastating February 2023 earthquakes prompted vital human and materials losses, additional pressuring the already fragile macro-financial scenario. Turkey’s present inflation stands at 67.07%.
The federal government’s new Medium-Time period Program for 2023–2025 goals to realize a mean GDP progress of 5.3%. Nonetheless, the success of this system will rely upon the implementation of structural reforms, the diversification of buying and selling companions and the restoration of credibility and stability within the financial atmosphere.
Initially, Neo-Ottomanism aimed to spice up Turkey’s world affect and remodel it into a significant regional and presumably even worldwide participant. Nonetheless, Turkey has suffered within the financial, cultural and political arenas beneath Neo-Ottomanism.
[Gwyneth Campbell edited this piece]
The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Truthful Observer’s editorial coverage.
