LONDON: With bated breath, the world awaits Iran’s promised retaliation for final week’s suspected Israeli airstrike on its embassy annex within the Syrian capital Damascus. No matter type Teheran’s revenge takes, there may be mounting public concern it might set off an all-out struggle.
Not less than 16 individuals have been reportedly killed within the April 1 assault, together with two senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ extraterritorial Quds Power — Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi.
A day after the assault, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi promised the strike would “not go unanswered.” 5 days later, Yahya Rahim Safavi, senior adviser to Iran’s supreme chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that Israel’s embassies “are now not secure.”
Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement within the strike, however Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh mentioned the US has assessed that the Israelis have been accountable.
Center East consultants imagine Iran’s promised revenge might take many kinds, doubtlessly involving direct missile strikes through one of many IRGC’s proxy teams within the area, reminiscent of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“Retaliation appears inevitable. However what type it takes is anybody’s guess,” Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Mission on the Worldwide Disaster Group, instructed Arab Information.
An assault on an Israeli Embassy “can be on par with what Israel did in Damascus,” mentioned Vaez, however “nobody is aware of for positive what type the Iranian response will take.”
FASTFACTS
• Jan. 3, 2020: Quds Power commander Qassem Soleimani killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad.
• Dec. 25, 2023: Seyyed Razi, who headed the IRGC’s logistics and navy coordination in Syria, killed outdoors Damascus in suspected Israeli strike.
• Jan. 20, 2024: Senior Quds Power commander Hajj Sadegh killed when Israel struck a constructing in Damascus’ Mazzeh neighborhood.
• April 1, 2024: Mohammed Reza Zahedi, his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, and 5 different IRGC officers killed in suspected Israeli strike on embassy annex in Damascus.
Israel appears to have taken pre-emptive measures. Not solely has it bolstered its air defenses and known as up reservists, but it surely additionally shuttered 28 of its 103 diplomatic missions around the globe on Friday, in line with the Jerusalem Submit, and stepped up safety measures round its numerous consulates and missions.
Stressing that the strike is “uncommon,” particularly throughout such “advanced and delicate instances,” Eva J. Koulouriotis, a political analyst specializing within the Center East, believes “Tehran has no alternative however to reply.”
She instructed Arab Information: “Tel Aviv, which selected to assassinate Gen. Zahedi and his companions within the Iranian consulate constructing in Damascus, was capable of assassinate him outdoors the consulate or on the Masnaa crossing on the Syrian-Lebanese border, and even in his workplace within the southern suburb of Beirut.
“Nevertheless, the selection of this place by the Israeli management, which can be the residence of the Iranian ambassador, is a message of escalation addressed on to Khamenei and the IRGC.”
Koulouriotis didn’t low cost the potential for an assault on an Israeli Embassy.
“Final December, an explosion occurred close to the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi, with out inflicting any casualties,” she mentioned. “Though no celebration claimed accountability for the assault, there’s a perception in Israel that Iran had a hand on this bombing.
“Due to this fact, in my view, Tehran will take an identical step sooner or later with out claiming accountability for the assault, but it surely is not going to be a direct response to the assault on the consulate in Damascus as a result of sensitivity of this step.”
However, Koulouriotis believes “the Iranian response have to be publicly adopted to realize deterrence on the one hand and to fulfill the favored base of the Iranian regime on the opposite.
“Due to this fact, for Tehran to go in direction of a public and direct assault on an Israeli diplomatic mission in one of many nations of the area will imply a harmful escalation, not with Israel alone, however with the nation by which the assault passed off.”
Phillip Smyth, a fellow on the Washington Institute and former researcher with the College of Maryland, believes the assertion from Khamenei’s adviser Safavi about Israeli embassies was “definitely a risk,” however “the difficulty is that if Iran or its proxies can ship on that promise.”
He instructed Arab Information: “Different operations, reminiscent of in India and Thailand — each involving Lebanese Hezbollah — failed. There may be loads of intelligence strain on all these operations, too.”
Vaez of the Worldwide Disaster Group concurs {that a} response could be “a really troublesome needle to string for Iran.”
He mentioned: “Tehran doesn’t wish to fall into an Israeli lure that may justify increasing the struggle but additionally can’t afford to permit Israel to focus on Iranian diplomatic amenities without charge.”
Smyth, an professional on Iranian proxies, agreed {that a} typical direct retaliation, reminiscent of utilizing ballistic missiles as its navy did earlier than to focus on US forces and Kurdish websites in Iraq, “might open up the Islamic Republic to extra direct strikes by Israel.”
In 2020, Iran responded to the unprecedented US assassination of Quds Power commander Qassem Soleimani at Baghdad Airport with a direct assault on US troops, launching a barrage of ballistic missiles on the Ain Al-Assad base in Iraq.
Because the suspected Israeli assault on the Iranian Embassy annex in Damascus, the US has been on excessive alert, braced for Iran’s “inevitable” response that would come throughout the subsequent week, a prime US administration official instructed CNN on April 5.
The US, Israel’s strongest ally, was fast to disclaim involvement or prior data of the assault and warned Iran to not retaliate towards American pursuits.
“We is not going to hesitate to defend our personnel and repeat our prior warnings to Iran and its proxies to not benefit from the scenario — once more, an assault by which we had no involvement or superior data — to renew their assaults on US personnel,” Robert Wooden, deputy US ambassador to the UN, mentioned in an announcement.
US troops within the Center East, significantly these stationed in Iraq and Syria, have been frequent targets for Iran and its proxies.
Smyth mentioned Tehran would possibly resort to utilizing its “well-developed military of proxy teams unfold out throughout the area,” which embrace Hezbollah in Lebanon, Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, militias in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.
Hezbollah introduced on Friday that it was “totally ready” to go to struggle with Israel.
In a speech commemorating Jerusalem Day, the group’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah, described the April 1 strike as a “turning level” and mentioned Iran’s retaliation was “inevitable.”
Center East analyst Koulouriotis mentioned the almost certainly first response state of affairs is that Iran would “give the inexperienced mild to Hezbollah in Lebanon … to launch a heavy missile strike towards a lot of cities in northern Israel, a very powerful of which is Haifa.”
Nevertheless, “this state of affairs is difficult and will result in the opening of an expanded struggle towards Hezbollah that may finish with Iran shedding the Lebanon card after Hamas in Gaza.”
Tehran may also order its multinational militias in Syria to direct a missile strike towards considered one of Israel’s navy bases within the Golan, mentioned Koulouriotis, however this feature “can be futile.”
She added: “Moscow could not conform to deliver Damascus right into a direct battle with Tel Aviv, which can result in Assad paying a heavy worth, and thus Tehran could have risked the efforts of 14 years of struggle in Syria.”
An analyst mentioned Iran would possibly discover Israeli positions within the Golan area an applicable goal because it seeks to reply to Israel’s April 1 assault on Iran’s consulate constructing annex in Damascus. (AFP)
As Tehran considers the Damascus embassy annex strike a direct assault “concentrating on its status within the area,” Koulouriotis mentioned it would select a direct response to Israel utilizing ballistic missiles and suicide drones, “and the Golan area could also be appropriate for this response.
“Regardless of the complexities of this state of affairs linked to the Israeli response, which can result in further escalation, it saves face for the Iranian regime and sends a message to Tel Aviv that Tehran is not going to tolerate crossing the crimson traces.”
Smyth of the Washington Institute believes that whereas “there could also be a (grander) effort to show a brand new weapons functionality by a proxy and even Iran itself,” Tehran’s response may also take a type much like the Houthi assaults on transport within the Purple Sea.
“They’ve already demonstrated makes an attempt to economically hurt the Israelis by establishing quasi-blockades of the Purple Sea through the use of the Houthis,” he mentioned.
In the meantime, communities throughout the Center East can solely wait with mounting concern for the seemingly inevitable Iranian response, aware that they are going to doubtless bear the brunt of any ensuing escalation.
Certainly, it’s not a lot a query of if, however when.
“The delay in response is principally associated to the oblique negotiations between Tehran and Washington,” mentioned Koulouriotis. “To stop the Iranian response from resulting in an expanded struggle or a extra harmful escalation within the area.”
