By Robert Yoon, Related Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump and Nikki Haley will face off Saturday in South Carolina’s first Republican presidential major, the primary face-off between the final two main candidates remaining because the New Hampshire major a 12 months in the past month. There may be.
The competitors takes place on Haley Subject. She served as governor of South Carolina for six years earlier than leaving workplace in 2017 to turn into U.N. ambassador when Trump was elected president. Regardless of his historical past, Haley faces sturdy headwinds in a state the place Trump enjoys the help of many of the occasion institution, has held a considerable lead in latest polls and enjoys excessive recognition among the many base conservative.
Each candidates launched sharp assaults in opposition to one another, with Trump utilizing derisive nicknames for Haley and downplaying her work in his cupboard. Haley more and more questions Trump’s health for workplace, lately criticizing his feedback on Russia and NATO. It’s a marked distinction from earlier within the marketing campaign, the place she and different Republican candidates averted immediately criticizing Trump.
The South Carolina major is mostly an indicator of which candidate will win the Republican presidential nomination. For the reason that trendy model of the state’s primaries started in 1980, all however one Republican major winner has gone on to win the occasion’s nomination. The one exception was Newt Gingrich in 2012.
A preview of what to anticipate on election night time:
PRIMARY DAY
The first will likely be held Saturday and polls shut statewide at 7 p.m. EST.
WHAT THE VOTE CONTAINS
The poll will embrace Ryan Binkley, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, David Stuckenberg and Trump.
WHO CAN VOTE
South Carolina has an open major system, which means any registered voter can take part in any occasion’s major. However voters can solely take part in a celebration’s presidential major, so those that voted within the Feb. 3 Democratic major can not vote within the Republican major.
Solely about 4% of registered voters voted within the Democratic marketing campaign, leaving many of the voters, together with Democrats and independents who favor Haley over Trump and didn’t vote within the earlier marketing campaign, eligible to weigh in on the Republican race.
RULES FOR ATTRIBUTION OF DELEGATES
There are 50 delegates at stake and 29 will likely be awarded to the winner of the statewide vote. Twenty-one delegates will likely be allotted primarily based on voting in every of the state’s seven congressional districts. The best vote-getter in every district will get three delegates from that district.
DECISION NOTES
The final time Haley gained a aggressive GOP major in South Carolina was in 2010, when she was the highest vote-getter in a four-way major and was compelled right into a runoff, which she gained gained palms down. Six years later, Trump gained a six-way race within the state’s presidential major, en path to capturing the White Home and changing into the dominant determine in Republican politics.
Republican electoral politics have modified dramatically since Haley and Trump final confronted different Republican candidates within the Palmetto State. Nonetheless, their previous election outcomes present some clues for Saturday’s major.
In South Carolina’s previous aggressive primaries, Haley’s strongest outcomes and a few of Trump’s worst have been in counties the place Democrats carry out greatest usually elections.
Trump gained 44 of the state’s 46 counties within the 2016 primaries, all however Richland and Charleston, the second and third most populous. Haley gained these counties by a large margin in his 2010 runoff, as did Democrat Joe Biden within the 2020 common election.
Haley’s different strongest areas in 2010 had been the comparatively small counties of Bamberg, Lee, Marlboro and Orangeburg, all of which Biden carried, in addition to Dorchester and Chesterfield, all of which Biden misplaced to Trump.
The outcomes are broadly per Haley’s efficiency up to now within the 2024 presidential primaries. Her strongest performances in Iowa and New Hampshire had been in Democratic-friendly areas of the states, and her worst performances in areas favorable to Republicans.
These outcomes counsel that Haley’s greatest likelihood of profitable in South Carolina, or attaining a aggressive end result, can be to win massive in Democratic areas of the state, notably in vote-rich Charleston and Richland, whereas remaining aggressive in bigger Greenville County and minimizing margins in closely Republican areas. Likewise, she’s going to doubtless should carry out properly on votes solid earlier than Election Day, which would be the first votes reported on Election Night time in most counties.
The Related Press doesn’t make projections and can solely declare a winner when it determines that no situation exists for trailing candidates to shut the hole. If no race has been known as, the AP will proceed to cowl any newsworthy developments, corresponding to candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will clarify that it has not but declared a winner and clarify why.
WHAT PARTICIPATION AND VOTING IN ADVANCE LOOK LIKE
There are roughly 3.3 million registered voters in South Carolina. Voters don’t register by occasion. Turnout within the 2016 Republican major was about 25% of registered voters. It was about 22% within the 2012 major.
Saturday’s vote would be the first Republican presidential major held within the state since a brand new early voting legislation was signed into legislation in Could 2022. The legislation permits voters to solid ballots in particular person earlier than Election Day with out an excuse.
The early voting interval for the GOP primaries will likely be February 12-22, excluding February 18-19. Within the 2016 Republican major, when voters had to offer an excuse to vote by mail, about 8% of votes had been solid earlier than Election Day. Within the 2022 midterm primaries, after the brand new legislation took impact, the pre-election vote was about 21%. About 36% of the votes solid within the Feb. 3 Democratic major had been solid earlier than Election Day.
As of Tuesday night, greater than 139,000 voters had solid their ballots.
HOW LONG DOES VOTE COUNTING USUALLY TAKE?
Within the 2024 South Carolina Democratic major, the AP first reported outcomes at 7:08 p.m. EST.
Main night time counting concluded at 10:47 p.m. EST with practically 100% of votes counted.
As of Saturday, there will likely be 142 days till the Republican Nationwide Conference in Milwaukee and 255 days till the November common election.
